Statistics do lie

I thought Cricket was a 'Game of glorious uncertainties', now I know Tennis too can lay a claim to it.
Have a look at the following statistics:

• Kiefer had more unforced errors, 67 to 55
• Grosjean had more winners, 59 to 34
• There were 18 breaks of serve, nine each, Kiefer had 16 chances to Grosjaen's 13
• Grosjean had 12 aces to Kiefer's four
• Kiefer had more double faults, 9 to 2
• Grosjean won more points, 169 to 160

After reading this I thought, "Ohh! So Kiefer lost". Well I was wrong! Kiefer won the match, even though he has more unforced errors and fewer winners. Almost a five-hour epic, this match certainly proves that statistics do not tell the truth always.

Statistics just make for an interesting reading. Need more proof, Irfan Pathan 90s and 80s would be forgotten the next month, while the Dhoni-massacre would stand the test of time. Both the innings were of equal importance, but Dhoni would be in the record books (not taking anything from him though). What does Harbhajan have to show for the one-minded pursuit of wicket? What about the edges, the dropped catches, the half-chances? Another column should be added in the bowling figures - the number of times bowler beats the batsman.

Statistics do not always convey the truth!

Three days to go

The battle is set to start. The verbal duels have been going on for a long time now. Everyone is trying to psyche out the other team. Imran Khan, Sarfarz, Inzi, Kaneria, Sehwag, Dhoni, Gavaskar - all have been giving opinions, provoking the other team. Just waiting for the actual action to start.

But going by the weather predictions, the first two tests may very well pour water on the kindling fire. The venues for the first two tests - Lahore & Faisalabad, both are in north Pakistan, which is in the grip of one of the worst winters in recent years. Fogs would invariably delay the start and light would fade very fast. In the recent Eng-Pak series, the light meters were out as soon as the latter half of second session. I doubt that any decision would be reached in the first two tests, given that both teams are evenly matched and both are riding the winning wave. So everything would very likely boil down to the third test at Karachi.

In my opinion, India should go into the test matches with a five pronged bowling attack - Pathan, Agarkar, Zaheer, Kumble and Harbhajan. The sixth batsman is unlikely to be missed, as Dhoni and Pathan are capable of turning the match based only on their batting. But then the critical question would be - Who will miss out in the Indian batting lineup? Dravid, Tendulkar & Sehwag are in. Laxman has also found his touch in the recent matches, and he is one player who thrives on his previous outings. So the question arises, who should be the fifth batsman? Gambhir, Ganguly, Yuvraj or Jaffer? IMHO, Yuvraj is the best of the pack. But very rarely has Indian team been solely picked on talent. Given that Pakistan is preparing pitches that would favour their fast bowlers, India could go in with a specialist opener (Jaffer or Gambhir) but I doubt that Indian selectors would do that. I am sure that Ganguly would be the fifth batsman just to avoid the entire imbroglio. But this situation arises only if Indian team goes in with five bowlers, which I doubt they'd ever do. Either Agarkar or Zaheer would be out & Jaffer would get the green signal. I think it would be Agarkar who would be resting his heels, as he has been Indian Team's favourite axe-guy over the years. He has been inexplicably in and out of the team scores of times.

The team that I would like to see in the tests would be - Sehwag, Dravid, Laxman, Tendulkar, Yuvraj, Dhoni, Pathan, Agarkar, Zaheer, Kumble, Harbhajan.

And I think the team that would go in would be - Sehwag, Jaffer, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman, Ganguly, Dhoni, Pathan, Zaheer, Kumble, Harbhajan.

Pandora's Box

And the selectors have opened another Pandora's box by dropping Ganguly for the third test. Media is going to have another heyday. Speculations, suspicions, finger-pointing, accusations, effigy-burning, Chappell conspiracy, Pawar camp and many more such things to follow.

It is India-XI

In every team there is someone around whom the whole game & the game plan rotates. That is the player the opposite team deems to be the most dangerous, someone they target, and start verbal attacks on that player even before the series has started. The other 10 players on the field are generally forgotten, the limelight is for this one player only.

I agree that Cricket is a team game, but invariably it so happens that a team becomes synonymous with some player. The current Pakistani team is Haq-XI, for West Indies it is Lara, in case of Sri Lanka - Muralitharan, Kallis defines South Africa, New Zealand's biggest star is Fleming (although Vettori too has his share of limelight), England and Flintoff are synonyms (another gentleman by the name of Pieterson is trying to steal the limelight, but Flintoff is not giving in easily - he massacres the opposite team with the bat, with the ball and as if that is not enough he is one of the best slip fielders around). And when the team is not about an individual, as in the case of Australia (Of McGrath, Warne, Ponting, Hayden, Gilchrist - which individual can you associate with Australia? None!), then that team is rightly a team. Not 1, but 11 individuals will be feared.

Four years back I would have said India is Tendulkar, leave 4 years, even in 2003 World Cup India rode on Tendulkar's back to reach the final. 673 runs is not a mean feat! But for the past two years Dravid had become India. Dravid was shouldering the burden of India. Sometimes a blitz by Sehwag, or Harbhajan's stingy spell would ease the burden of his shoulders, but rarely has anyone put their hand-up to be counted upon. For the past few years India has had many match-winners in Yuvraj, Sehwag, Pathan, Harbhajan - but no one has been as consistent as Dravid. And now suddenly in the past two series, everyone has started performing well very consistently. Yuvraj was considered out of form and he bagged the man-of-series award in Ind-SA series. Pathan has been striking consistently in his first spell, and he is supplementing that with his effort with the bat too. Harbhajan, although not among a heap of wickets, has been strangling the batsmen. Another out-of-form player, Sehwag, was the second highest scorer for India in the recently concluded series. Even Agarkar, who till now has been consistently inconsistent, has bowled with aplomb. And with Kaif patrolling the covers and Yuvraj keen on putting Jonty Rhodes to shame, Indian fielding has reached an unprecedented high. Right now India is not about individuals, it sure is Team-India!

These days I still watch Cricket even if Tendulkar gets out.

Something extra and luck

I have always thought that to get a player like Tendulkar out, either you need great deal of luck or great skills. Whenever Tendulkar got out, I'd use to check whether the decision is right or not, whether it is a great catch, or whether it is a slower ball. Most of the times, major chunk of the Tendulkar dismissals fell into this category. I thought of checking this out...
In the last 8 innings that Tendulkar has played, he has been dismissed 7 times. Of these 7, one decision was doubtful and there were three great catches. Further more three of the dismissals were on slower balls! Of the seven dismissals, just one dismissal was not doubtful or not a great catch or not a slower ball (Tendulkar came down the pitch to Vaas and got bowled).

Six dismissals out of seven, that relies on either great skill or good luck. That sure is a huge percentage! I think I would find similar traits if I check out Dravid's or Lara's records (In the on-going Aus-WI series, Lara has been unlucky 2-3 times already). To get great batsman out, the opposite team generally has to come out with something great; these players rarely make a bad decision while choosing a shot and play the ball by its merit. Something extra is needed to get these guys out, and always good luck.

--

On another note, Tendulkar set to become the most capped ODI player in history of cricket! 16 years of Cricket behind him and still going strong. 357 and counting...

The Ganguly Dilemma

No offence to Bengalis, but why all the hoop-la about Ganguly being out of the Indian Cricket Team? The test team which was to be selected on 28th Nov will now be selected on 25th Nov - before the Kolkata ODI between India and South Africa - and as per speculation Ganguly will be in the team, just to ensure that there is not a repeat of the Eden-Garden fiasco of 1996 World Cup semifinal between India and Sri Lanka. And then some West Bengal minister goes shouting about that he won't see the India-SA ODI unless Ganguly is in the team. Who cares whether he sees the match or not? Better if he does not watch the match, less security issues. There have been innumerable strikes in West Bengal, effigies are being burnt at the rate almost every other day, and scores of articles have appeared in Bengali media denouncing BCCI and Chappell and while they are at it, the whole Indian Cricket Team. I distinctly remember one article that asked whether Sehwag or Tendulkar or Dravid called him up after Ganguly was dropped? Like that has a relevance to the whole plot! This is plain pressure tactics being applied by the West Bengal media and some factions of people there.

Does Ganguly deserve to be in the Indian Team? Based on his current form, I'd say no. Two ducks [in all he played 5 balls], two LBWs in the Duleep Trophy Final does not augur any changes in the current Indian Team. Being back in the ODI team is a distant dream for Ganguly now, and Ganguly is claiming the all-rounder slot in test-team. Are my ears deceiving me? Did I hear it right? Ganguly, as an all-rounder? Argh!

Anyone's Game

Test matches are not won over five days. A test match is won session-by-session. A team has to strive to excel in every session; losing a session is like giving the opposite team a foothold in the door closing upon them. This is exactly what England has done. Pakistan had its back to the wall after the first two days, and then England conceded the first session of the third day. Shoaib Akhtar, Shabbir Ahmed and Salman Butt ensured that Pakistan got a firm foothold in the match. And now what seemed to be a lost cause for Pakistan has again become an engrossing test match.

Over the years Australia had demonstrated quite admirably as to how to win a test match by capturing every session. England emulated them in the Ashes and reverse swung to a victory that may have ended the careers of Jason Gillespie, Damien Martyn and Michael Kasprovicz.

When two teams are evenly matched (as Pakistan and England seem to be, England on a winning spree and Pakistan playing at their home) it matters a lot who won the previous session, since the momentum swings in that direction. If Australia and Bangladesh are playing, and Bangladesh somehow managed to clinch one session, Australia will come back much stronger in the next session and thrash them. But in case of equally matched teams the game is played as much in the mind as it is on the ground. Each session counts in these matches.

Lets see who wins more of the 15 sessions; right now the match is delicately poised. It could tilt anyway.